TE WHANGAI NEWSLETTER SPRING 2024

Hi there,

As the apparent warmest August day on record passes sadly by (a few more would be perfect!), I am reflecting on a year that has tested the boundaries on many fronts, and so differently in regions across the country.

Far from the prolonged drought being predicted for our area, it still turned out to be an extremely challenging autumn and came with a number of curly issues but total lack of grass of any description was not one of them - it was good quality grass that dried off quickly and became almost toxic especially for sheep, which is a problem when we are now over 85% sheep!

Having such a high ratio of sheep to cattle would have the ‘internal parasite police’ in a real panic, and rightly so, but isn’t that just the perfect testing ground for identifying animals that can survive and thrive in those conditions?

While the generally accepted heritability for resilience (being able to grow while not being drenched) is about .18, meaning 18% of the difference between animals performance is genetic and the rest is management, environment or just luck. So it is fair to say that genetic progress for that would be quite slow, but the work we did with AgResearch many years ago showed that under our zero weaning drench policy the heritability was .53 meaning a lot more of that performance differential is genetic, obviously because of the reduced ‘management’ influence.

The moist summer conditions were the perfect breeding ground for Barbers Pole again which is unusual for us and certainly caused some concerns in the lambs but while the 2ths were also clearly carrying a heavy burden they remained undrenched so those that come in at weaning with a good set of twins are exactly what we are looking for to provide replacements. Staying with the parasite theme and the perplexing issue of drench resistance, which seems to have mysteriously and simultaneously become rife in this country and the UK from what I can gather. Could it just be a coincidence or could it be that someone’s been a ‘bit economical’ with the ingredients?

I have asked the question of a drench company scientist and an AgResearch scientist, surprisingly I got two different answers! One said pharmaceutical companies would not be silly enough to behave badly (a quick google search showed pharma companies have paid $119 billion in fines and reparations for fraud since 2000!) the other said MPI had reprimanded a company (no fine) for selling a product that was not true to label! So who do you believe? Around 2010 we were invited to be part of validating the CARLA programme. CARLA testing is about measuring an antibody response to a molecule found on the infective L3 stage of gastrointestinal parasites. As a rule animals with a high antibody response are neutralising the incoming L3 larvae which results in lower worm egg outputs and increased weight gain so what’s not to like about that? For some unexplained reason that was not the case in our flock and because it did not appear to correlate with our growth rate under challenge (resilience) data so we chalked it up to experience and moved on. I am curious to relook at this and see if the results are still the same and if so, what that means.

GE

The government have just made a big announcement about GMO/GE research, what does all this mean and how might we be affected, is this about producing Frankenfood or just remaining competitive?

Since I became aware of gene editing I have been an advocate for it as it sounds like a precisely controlled process where a little snip here or insertion there of a gene on the DNA would solve a problem for us. I imagined the perfect grass that would grow without water or fertiliser, the perfect hen that would lay all day and all night, the perfect sheep that would eat the moss on the battens (while the cattle ate the grass) always have as many lambs as she had tits, never need a needle or a drench gun, no dags but still produce a succulent meaty carcase and a great jacket of wool, what could go wrong I thought.

Now we have the government, Fed Farmers and our own Beef+Lamb wanting to add “no burping” to that wish list and that’s got my antennae twitching.

Closer inspection reveals that the plan is to also re assess what is considered GM and the requirement for food packaging to disclose it, watch out for a new acronym NBT- meaning ‘New Breeding Technique’ – hmmm, and products deemed to be ‘substantially equivalent’ to natural food will not be required to be labelled as such.

Why is this of interest to us farmers? We know sales of fake meat have collapsed, people don’t want it, but what if consumers had no idea of what they were buying? NZ has the ambition to sell high integrity products to discerning customers at premium prices, what happens to our ‘Taste Pure Nature’ brand if we no longer have GMO free status? I think that is the question we need to ask ourselves

Methane

This continues to be NZ’s inflection point in the climate change conversation. Since last year we have a new government that surely sees the country’s fortunes are based on successful agriculture, right? If that was genuinely the case there are three simple questions we should be asking:

1. When the government, B+L, Fed Farmers and indeed the whole world are all focussed on not letting the planet get too warm (which is fair enough) why will not one of them even ask or answer the question… How much warming are we responsible for right now?

2. When the UN is the controlling voice for climate change and it’s specialist scientific advisory organisation the IPCC say NZ agriculture only produces 10% of our emissions, why do our government and farming advocates say that it is 48% or even more?

3. Our government and industry advocates insist that the ‘science is settled’ and all say they are not scientists therefore will not question the science, however, the reason the IPCC say that agriculture is only 10% of NZ’s emissions is because they have more recent science that says methane does not have the warming effect that they once thought! So how can the science be settled?

On the graph below, the red line shows the modelled warming from NZ methane for the 100 years from 2000 to 2100 is 0.0004°C, that equals 4 millionths of a degree celsius per year.

So why does this all matter?

We are going to be paying a tax for this if we roll over. It might be disguised but there will be a cost.
While no one will acknowledge the current warming from livestock, the government has thus far pumped over $1.4 billion into mitigation projects! The warming is accepted as 000004 (3 or 4 millionths) of a degree C per year.
Sheep breeding focused on lowering methane will take selection pressure off productive traits as well as waste more levy money.
We are going to have more red tape, regulation and cost as we are forced to account for our emissions (which aren’t causing any measurable warming!)
Our NZ marketing point of difference being free range, grass fed (and GE free) is totally lost as we self-flagellate over a non- existent problem.
While pastoral farming will become less competitive, more country will be lost to pine trees. By virtue of our temperate climate and grass based farming systems NZ is already 40% more ‘carbon efficient’ (what ever that means! There’s no carbon in N20!) so when trade partners say they will buy elsewhere if we do not conform to the narrative then it’s clear the issue is political not scientific.
Heard of C40 cities? Virtually no one has, I wonder why! Letting this nonsense get oxygen has allowed the ‘aspirational goals’ for meat consumption in these 100 highly influential cities, to be 0% by 2030! It is treasonous for NZ not to be crushing this rubbish
Banks have waded in to the junket through AgriZero, so how long will it be until measures are in place to encourage behavioural change?

Dr ‘Jock’ Allison, one of NZ’s most recognised and respected scientists sadly died in May, he has been described as ‘the individual who has done more for NZ ag than any other’ so one would assume he should be listened to. With a lifetime of science behind him Jock could see the argument for blaming atmospheric warming on ruminants had more holes in it than Swiss cheese! He was adamant that time should not be wasted arguing the peripheral points because the latest science, which has not been refuted by anyone, says methane and C02 could double and it would have an insignificant impact on warming so JUST SAY NO was his bottom line. RIP Jock, I know that farmers agree with you.

Planet savers?

I have recently been informed of the sale of two big hunks of carbon credits and I was challenged to guess who bought them. My thinking was it would not be Air NZ because they just plant more trees, it wouldn’t be a big steel mill or the Bluff smelter as they are exempt, it wouldn’t be a big timber mill or high energy user because they are on the ropes with the high power prices so it had to either be a speculator or an unaccountable entity spending someone else’s money. Well guess what... it was Fonterra and Alliance, can you believe it!!!

Prices turning the corner

When meat prices go up strongly it is often attributed to ‘procurement pressure’ and not true market signals, which is often the case because most meat exporters and therefore 95% of farmers do not participate in a marketing model where they are prepared to lock in a price at the farm gate linked to a price in the market therefore the spot market can be very volatile. I do believe though that there is a shortage of sheep meat especially in UK and Europe and the very strong beef prices can only be helping. While we scour the world looking for markets, are we missing an opportunity right under our nose?

If NZ lifted it’s average domestic consumption of lamb, currently 1.9kg/head to the same level as Australia, 6.4kg/head, that domestic consumption would be our 2nd largest market. By applying normal business margins and known processing costs it seems conceivable that the retail price of meat could be considerably less and the farm gate price considerably more if some consideration was given to a disruptive marketing strategy, also greater domestic supply would provide resilience to the nonsense argument that NZ will suffer in the global marketplace if we don’t succumb to the emissions blackmail.

It is fantastic that prices have lifted substantially, they absolutely had to and they need to be consistently strong but equally we cannot allow costs like rates to continue spiralling out of control. I heard someone in local government say that over the next three years rates will rise by another 40%, which is an outrageous thought.

Making the assumption that both models have a market for their product, in the niche business the cost of capital and human resource is provided by the owner and therefore they get all the profits, whereas in a conventional business structure the capital and human resource must be supplied by the business and therefore there is nothing left for the supplier of the raw material.

The big question is.. What will it take to encourage growers, at scale, to provide more than just the raw material if they want the margins that the niche operators capture?

It is a no brainer that there is a future for wool, but under the status quo model of shearing the stuff off, selling to the highest bidder and wanting to be paid in 11 days?? We need to do much better than that.

Note from James

Hi all, I thought as Its raining and windy outside after going around the ewes this morning that I best sit down and write down my 2 cents worth to add to the newsletter. The ewes are full swing into lambing now. Weather to date has been pretty good, the usual wind but no major storm or cold rain which has been very pleasing. I see our mates down south have been taking bit of a hammering with rain and snow and I hope you all have come through without too many losses.

Our on-farm team is thriving, recently welcoming two new members: Sam Twiggley, who joins us as a shepherd, and Colin Beale, who will handle fencing and general maintenance. Their expertise and enthusiasm align perfectly with our team culture, and they’re already making a positive impact on our operations.

The season started strong here with a decent lambing, and the lambs looked good at weaning. However, as autumn approached, conditions quickly changed and became drier. The relentless presence of worms, particularly haemonchus and trichostrongylus, posed significant challenges.

Our management practices create an ideal environment for testing our stud stock, allowing the true performers to shine while the under-performers become evident.

Since mid-August, the rams have been at Taitua after being put through their paces and shorn at the station. They should look respectable by sale time.

I hope to catch up with some of you in the coming months!
Cheers, James Brennan

Romney ewes and lambs becoming a more familiar sight lambing outside in the UK.

UK

The consignment of ewes and rams that flew over last year have multiplied 10 fold through AI/ET and the Trefranck team have been showing the progeny off at events around the UK, here is an extract from their recent newsletter:

“Ram sales are in full swing with the word about Resilient Romneys spreading in the UK sheep world. We have attended a couple of events this summer to reach a wider audience,

Groundswell, a regenerative farming conference/ festival and the National Sheep Association Sheep Event. We took ram lambs, which are embryos from the Te Whangai imported ewes, to both events. Lots of interesting conversations took place pen side as farmers stopped by and gained an insight into the benefits of resilience to worms. This is quite a new concept to most in the UK. We also had Prince William stop by the stand and chat to Pete and our vet, he took a keen interest in the genetics”

.

One of the interesting observations made about the Te Whangai genetics is the unbelievable speed at which new born lambs get up and literally run, which is a big help as beliefs that sheep can only be lambed indoors are being dispelled.

In a rather unique event in Matt’s shed, one of the Te Whangai ewes was amongst the 517 shorn by Scottish shearer Una Cameron as she smashed Kiwi, Sacha Bond’s 9 hour woman’s world record of 458 on the 7th August.

The changing structure of their subsidies might also put pressure on sheep numbers as payments are more aligned with increasing areas of ‘old pasture’ which farmers are effectively getting paid NOT to graze.

Ewes lining up for Una’s world record, including one directly from Te Whangai!

A parting thought

Using sheep as the barometer of the country’s economic health consider this, the last time sheep numbers were the same as now was in 1916 when there was 1 government employee for every 800 sheep, now that figure is 1 for every 61 sheep! Sheep numbers have buckled under the burden of Bureaucracy! A large East Coast hill country farm analysis in 2023 shows 5 year average return from sheep, including -ve $9.90/SSU from wool was still $23.50 ahead of the breeding/finishing beef return. Like it or not, is the country still riding on the sheep’s back?

All the best, Hamish and all the Te Whangai team.

TE WHANGAI NEWSLETTER SPRING 2024

TE WHANGAI NEWSLETTER SPRING 2023